Governments must
consider ways to manage the transition to driverless trucks in order to avoid
potential social disruption from job losses, says a new report published by the
International Transport Forum (ITF) with three partner organisations. The
report was released during the ITF 2017 summit held recently in Leipzig,
Germany. Key elements include the fact that Self-driving trucks will help save
costs, lower emissions and make roads safer. But these benefits also come at a
price.
Aside from
lowering transport costs and the other items mentioned above, they could also
address the shortage of professional drivers faced by the road transport
industry, the study says. BUT... automated trucks could reduce the demand for
drivers by 50-70% in the US and Europe by 2030, with up to 4.4 million of the
projected 6.4 million professional trucking jobs becoming redundant, according
to one scenario.
One would imagine a similar figure to happen
over in the ASEAN region once self-driving vehicles hit our shores in full
force a few years (or say a decade) after it does over in more developed countries.
I predict the same number or even more people will be affected here in the
ASEAN region. It is the loss of income from a sizable amount of people that
would obviously be affected when autonomous vehicles come to being. Why is the
amount so large? Well, in most countries, by regulation each truck must have a
driver and a co-driver.
The report, even in the concise, summary form I am publishing here in
motoring-malaysia.blogspot.my is an interesting read.
Even if the rise
of driverless trucks dissuades newcomers from trucking, over 2 million drivers
in the US and Europe could be directly displaced, according to scenarios
examined for the report.
The report makes
four recommendations to help manage the transition to driverless road freight:
- Establish a
transition advisory board to advise on labour issues.
Governments should
establish a transition advisory board for the trucking industry to advise on
labour issues associated with the introduction of driverless trucks. The board
should be temporary and include representatives from labour unions, road freight
businesses, vehicle manufacturers and government. It would support the
government in choosing the right policy mix to ensure that costs, benefits and
risks from automated road haulage are fairly distributed.
- Consider a temporary permit system to manage the speed of adoption.
Governments should
consider a mechanism to shape the transition to driverless trucks. A permit
system would offer influence over the speed of uptake as well as revenue to
support displaced drivers. Where economy-wide unemployment support is
considered inadequate, additional assistance could come in the form of targeted
labour market programs to try to re-deploy drivers. It could also take the form
of additional income replacement payments where alternative employment
opportunities have also been reduced by automation.
For reasons of fairness,
funds for transition assistance should be generated by the main beneficiaries
of the operation of driverless trucks. The sale of permits to operators
experiencing operating cost reductions could be complemented by contributions
of all road users who will benefit from improved safety. Careful design of the
permit system would ensure that permits are used to manage the labour
transition fairly and not as a proxy to limit the free movement of goods.
- Set international standards, road rules and vehicle regulations for
self-driving trucks.
Harmonisation of
rules across countries is critical for maximising the gains from driverless
truck technology. Common vehicle standards and operational rules would allow
smooth cross-border movements of autonomous trucks and should be put in place
at least at a continental level, preferably at the global level. The proactive
approach of many governments to test permits and ad hoc exemptions to road
rules allows different approaches to be tested in parallel which can speed up
the maturing of the technology. However, such competition entails the risk of
insufficient attention on the ultimate goal of harmonisation.
- Continue pilot projects with driverless trucks to test vehicles, network
technology and communications protocols.
Governments,
industry and researchers should continue to advance tests on public roads in
designated corridors and areas for trialling vehicles, network technology and
communications protocols. This way various technologies are able to be tested
without committing to an individual company, standard or technology early in
the development process, ensuring that expensive network-wide investments are
not wasted or over-specified. This will help ensure societal benefits from
automated road freight transport will be maximised.
These
recommendations were agreed jointly by organisations representing truck
manufacturers, truck operators and transport workers’ unions, under the
auspices of an intergovernmental organisation. This broad coalition of
stakeholders lends the call to action particular weight.
The report was
prepared jointly by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA),
the International Transport Workers’ Federation and the International Road
Transport Union (IRU), the road transport industry’s global body, in a project
led by the International Transport Forum, a Paris-based intergovernmental
organisation linked to the OECD.
Participants of the International Transport Forum 2017 Summit
José Viegas, Secretary-General of the International
Transport Forum (ITF) said:
“Driverless trucks could be a regular presence on many roads within the next
ten years. Self driving trucks already operate in controlled environments like
ports or mines. Trials on public roads are under way in many regions including
the United States and the European Union. Manufacturers are investing heavily
into automation, and many governments are actively reviewing their regulations.
Preparing now for potential negative social impact of job losses will mitigate
the risks in case a rapid transition occurs.”
The ITF is an
intergovernmental organisation with 57 member countries. The only global body
for all modes, it acts as policy think tank and organises the annual summit of
transport ministers.
Erik Jonnaert, Secretary General of the European
Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), said:
“Harmonisation of rules across countries is critical for maximising the gains
from driverless truck technology. Automated trucks are clearly not a national
issue, as they should be able to move smoothly across borders. We need
international standards, legislation and processes to obtain exemptions from
road rules that are appropriate for self-driving trucks. Otherwise we risk
having a patchwork of rules and regulations, which could hinder manufacturers
and road users from investing in automated vehicles.”
ACEA is the
advocate for the automobile industry in Europe, representing the 15 major
manufacturers of cars, trucks, vans and buses with production sites in the
European Union.
Christian Labrot, President, International Road
Transport Union (IRU), said:
“Autonomous trucks will bring many benefits to society, from cost savings and
lower emissions to safer roads. Autonomous vehicles will also help the haulage
sector deal with the current shortage of drivers in many parts of the world.
However we have to remember the dedicated drivers of today will need to be
retrained tomorrow, and we must keep attracting professionals into road
transport. We all need to work together for a smooth transition to driverless technology.”
IRU is the global
industry association for road transport, representing truck, bus, coach and
taxi operators, with members and activities in more than 100 countries.
Steve Cotton, General Secretary of the International Transport
Workers’ Federation, said:
"Automation in trucking demands a managed and just transition. We strongly
welcome the report's recommendation that trade unions must be part of any such
process. We must avoid excessive hardship for truck drivers and ensure the
gains from the technology are fairly shared across society. Self-driving trucks
threaten to disrupt the careers and lives of millions of professional truck
drivers. This report is a timely investigation into how that transition could
happen. Its recommendations will help governments to ensure a just transition
for affected drivers.”
The International
Transport Workers’ Federation is a global association of around 700 unions
representing over 4.5 million transport workers from some 150 countries.
The times are
definitely changing, folks. When autonomous vehicles come into being we’re
going to see a drastic change. I do hope governments of all nations will take
this into account as going by how things are going, there is going to be a huge
shift in how things will be done in the near future. There will have to be monitoring and close scrutiny by all affected parties.
These things, or more specifically the transport industry will be carried out without the need of humans. Worrying in some ways, but it also shows
that mankind has taken another giant step into the future. As slightly more
than a hundred years after the first self propelled carriage came about, it
will now be self driven.
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